TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480607
Played Aug 24Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117116––––
Johannes Willeke
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Johannes Willeke below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 3–1 Johannes Willeke Johannes Willeke has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:07What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Henninger
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1583 vs Willeke 1315
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 269 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 60% vs Willeke 0%
Henninger
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 50% vs Willeke 20%
Henninger
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger -1 · Willeke -5
Willeke
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Willeke form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.30 / Willeke 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480607
Henninger1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Willeke3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHenninger3wins
AwayWilleke1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHenninger leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger2Willeke2n = 4split evenly
S2Henninger2Willeke2n = 4split evenly
S3Henninger3Willeke1n = 4Henninger took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHenningerWillekeH − WBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.031.0+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerWillekeBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 84 vs 11 / 4352.4%25.6%44 / 84 vs 11 / 43Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.331.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.30/Willeke 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 25 · 09:00M. Henninger—1111113J. Willeke—7750
WJun 12 · 09:00M. Henninger—1111113J. Willeke—9660
LJan 10 · 11:30M. Henninger—6960J. Willeke—1111113
WJan 10 · 09:30M. Henninger—661214113J. Willeke—1111101272
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113LAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
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