TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480604
Played Aug 25Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119114––––
Johannes Willeke
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Johannes Willeke below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 73.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 1–0 Johannes Willeke Johannes Willeke has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:06What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moreno
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1194 vs Willeke 1283
Willeke
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Willeke 0%
Moreno
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Willeke 10%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -3 · Willeke -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Moreno) · live re-read · sealed at 27% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Willeke form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 1.61 / Willeke 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Moreno)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480604
Moreno1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Willeke2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoreno1wins
AwayWilleke0wins
Moreno leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMorenoWillekeM − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.021.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoWillekeBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 125 vs 11 / 4514.4%24.4%18 / 125 vs 11 / 45Avg sets wonper match0.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match28.330.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MorenoMoreno 1.61/Willeke 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Moreno · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moreno won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno—1111113J. Willeke—8940
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
J. Willeke10
LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113LAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
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