TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12461688
Played Aug 20Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
15.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511111––––
Daniel Rinderer
Away
1.01
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 95.0% is still 95.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Rinderer to win
95.0%
95.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Daniel Rinderer below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 48 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Daniel Rinderer at 95.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–5 Daniel Rinderer Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.01 (94%)
Rinderer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Rinderer
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1172 vs Rinderer 1857
Rinderer
Correct
both rated, 685 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 0% vs Rinderer 60%
Rinderer
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 0% vs Rinderer 80%
Rinderer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -5 · Rinderer -1
Moreno
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Rinderer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinderer form (60%) is below what odds imply (99%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 15.00 / Rinderer 1.01
Signal prob.5% / 95%
Edge (Rinderer)+1.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #12461688
Moreno15.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Rinderer1.01
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayRinderer5wins
Rinderer leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMorenon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRinderer100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moreno1Rinderer4n = 5Rinderer took 4 of 5
S2Moreno0Rinderer5n = 5Rinderer took 5 of 5
S3Moreno0Rinderer5n = 5Rinderer took 5 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away480%
These 5 meetings
MetricMorenoRindererM − RBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match19.636.4−16.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoRindererBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 115 vs 121 / 17313.9%69.9%16 / 115 vs 121 / 173Avg sets wonper match0.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match28.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RindererMoreno 15.00/Rinderer 1.01
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
95%
Rinderer · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rinderer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 20 · 17:00A. Moreno—4740D. Rinderer—1111113
LMay 21 · 17:30A. Moreno—71470D. Rinderer—1116113
LApr 16 · 09:30A. Moreno—2130D. Rinderer—1111113
LFeb 9 · 17:00A. Moreno—7220D. Rinderer—1111113
LJan 8 · 12:30A. Moreno—11112141D. Rinderer—51311163
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113LAug 20 · 13:30M. Danzer1.731111113D. Rinderer2.006890WAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680WJul 24 · 11:00D. Rinderer—1112113J. Loffler—81070
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