TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480600
Played Aug 25Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119511711––
Manuel Kupfer
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeManuel Kupfer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Manuel Kupfer at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moreno
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1216 vs Kupfer 1162
Moreno
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 40% vs Kupfer 20%
Moreno
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 20% vs Kupfer 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno +1 · Kupfer -3
Kupfer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moreno) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kupfer form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 1.73 / Kupfer 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moreno)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480600
Moreno1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kupfer2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 124 vs 7 / 4714.5%14.9%18 / 124 vs 7 / 47Avg sets wonper match0.91.1per matchAvg pointsper match28.331.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MorenoMoreno 1.73/Kupfer 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moreno · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kupfer won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
A. Moreno10
WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
M. Kupfer10
LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
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