TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480621
Played Aug 24Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118116––––
Manuel Kupfer
Away
10.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 79.4%
51 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Danzer 1863 vs Kupfer 1148
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 715 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danzer 80% vs Kupfer 0%
Danzer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danzer 90% vs Kupfer 0%
Danzer
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danzer +3 · Kupfer -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danzer form (80%) is below what odds imply (97%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.03 / Kupfer 10.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Danzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480621
Danzer1.03
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Kupfer10.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 267 vs 7 / 4374.9%16.3%200 / 267 vs 7 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.51.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.531.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.03/Kupfer 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.7%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danzer won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.