TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13012796
Played Aug 25Finished
Viktor Yefimov
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210811711117116
Matthias Danzer
Away
2.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:46 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeViktor Yefimov to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Yefimov above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Viktor Yefimov at 66.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Yefimov 4–1 Matthias Danzer Matthias Danzer has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (64%)
Yefimov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Yefimov
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yefimov 2038 vs Danzer 1879
Yefimov
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yefimov 100% vs Danzer 80%
Yefimov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yefimov 90% vs Danzer 90%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yefimov +5 · Danzer +2
Yefimov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Yefimov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danzer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYefimov 1.46 / Danzer 2.55
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Yefimov)+3.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13012796
Yefimov1.46
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Danzer2.55
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeYefimov4wins
AwayDanzer1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderYefimov leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYefimovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDanzer33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yefimov2Danzer3n = 5Danzer took 3 of 5
S2Yefimov2Danzer3n = 5Danzer took 3 of 5
S3Yefimov4Danzer1n = 5Yefimov took 4 of 5
S4Yefimov3Danzer2n = 5Yefimov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricYefimovDanzerY − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match46.840.6+6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYefimovDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 70 vs 206 / 27488.6%75.2%62 / 70 vs 206 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.72.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YefimovYefimov 1.46/Danzer 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.6%
Yefimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Yefimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 24 · 17:30V. Yefimov—1111117113M. Danzer—13781112
WAug 18 · 16:00V. Yefimov—61413143M. Danzer—111211121
WJun 3 · 08:45V. Yefimov—111211113M. Danzer—814761
LJun 2 · 09:00V. Yefimov—81011101M. Danzer—11123123
WApr 10 · 17:30V. Yefimov—1181111113M. Danzer—41113792
V. Yefimov10
WAug 25 · 09:15V. Yefimov1.101111113M. Henninger6.506780WAug 25 · 07:00E. Huzsvar—8980V. Yefimov—1111113WAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 14:30M. Henninger4.5011780V. Yefimov1.171311113WAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113LJul 14 · 11:00I. Bertrand1.16715411113V. Yefimov4.45111311892WJul 14 · 09:44V. Yefimov1.40391111113O. Kosolosky2.7511118682
M. Danzer10
WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
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