TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480602
Played Aug 25Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
6.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119311119611911
Matthias Danzer
Away
1.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 71.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 2–9 Matthias Danzer Marius Henninger has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Danzer
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1571 vs Danzer 1871
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 299 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 60% vs Danzer 80%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 60% vs Danzer 80%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +1 · Danzer -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danzer form (80%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 6.50 / Danzer 1.10
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Danzer)+1.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480602
Henninger6.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Danzer1.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHenninger2wins
AwayDanzer8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDanzer leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHenningern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDanzer87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger2Danzer8n = 10Danzer took 8 of 10
S2Henninger4Danzer6n = 10Danzer took 6 of 10
S3Henninger4Danzer6n = 10Danzer took 6 of 10
S4Henninger0Danzer5n = 5Danzer took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHenningerDanzerH − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.838.4−8.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 88 vs 206 / 27551.1%74.9%45 / 88 vs 206 / 275Avg sets wonper match1.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerHenninger 6.50/Danzer 1.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.1%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger—11311692M. Danzer—911911113
LMar 5 · 13:30M. Henninger—5670M. Danzer—1111113
LJan 26 · 08:30M. Henninger—611371M. Danzer—11911113
LJan 13 · 10:30M. Henninger—7480M. Danzer—1111113
LJan 12 · 14:00M. Henninger—9690M. Danzer—1111113
LAug 19 · 07:30M. Henninger—751161M. Danzer—11115113
LJul 10 · 14:30M. Henninger—8730M. Danzer—1111113
WMay 16 · 10:30M. Henninger—1211113M. Danzer—10790
WMay 15 · 14:00M. Henninger—711157113M. Danzer—116131192
LJan 10 · 10:45M. Henninger—1211871M. Danzer—14911113
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.