TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12479768
Played Aug 24Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.04
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118116––––
Johannes Willeke
Away
8.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Johannes Willeke below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 61.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 4–0 Johannes Willeke Johannes Willeke has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.04 (89%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Danzer
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danzer 1863 vs Willeke 1354
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 509 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danzer 80% vs Willeke 40%
Danzer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danzer 90% vs Willeke 50%
Danzer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danzer +2 · Willeke +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Willeke form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.04 / Willeke 8.10
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Danzer)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12479768
Danzer1.04
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Willeke8.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDanzer4wins
AwayWilleke0wins
Danzer leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanzer100%4 of 4
AwayWilleken = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danzer4Willeke0n = 4Danzer took 4 of 4
S2Danzer2Willeke2n = 4split evenly
S3Danzer4Willeke0n = 4Danzer took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDanzerWillekeD − WBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match36.823.5+13.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerWillekeBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 268 vs 11 / 4075%27.5%201 / 268 vs 11 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.529.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.04/Willeke 8.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer—1111113J. Willeke—7860
WAug 11 · 08:30M. Danzer—11711113J. Willeke—811531
WAug 11 · 08:00M. Danzer—11711113J. Willeke—811531
WJan 9 · 10:30M. Danzer—1211113J. Willeke—10720
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113LAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
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