TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480617
Played Aug 24Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181171214911811
Manuel Kupfer
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 102 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 70.8%
102 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Willeke
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1354 vs Kupfer 1147
Willeke
Wrong
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 20% vs Kupfer 0%
Willeke
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 40% vs Kupfer 0%
Willeke
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -2 · Kupfer -5
Kupfer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Willeke) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kupfer form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 1.50 / Kupfer 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Willeke)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480617
Willeke1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kupfer2.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 40 vs 7 / 4427.5%15.9%11 / 40 vs 7 / 44Avg sets wonper match1.31.2per matchAvg pointsper match29.930.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WillekeWilleke 1.50/Kupfer 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Willeke · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kupfer won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113LAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
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