TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412191
Played Aug 13Finished
Manuel Kupfer
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511511811––
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:44 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingManuel Kupfer above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 62.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Manuel Kupfer 0–2 Marcel Neumaier Manuel Kupfer has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kupfer 1156 vs Neumaier 1613
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 457 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kupfer 0% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kupfer 20% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kupfer -5 · Neumaier -1
Kupfer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKupfer 4.50 / Neumaier 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Neumaier)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412191
Kupfer4.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Neumaier1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKupfer0wins
AwayNeumaier2wins
Neumaier leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKupferNeumaierK − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match26.536.5−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKupferNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 42 vs 58 / 10519.1%55.2%8 / 42 vs 58 / 105Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match30.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierKupfer 4.50/Neumaier 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 8 · 17:00M. Kupfer—9660M. Neumaier—1111113
LJul 29 · 07:30M. Kupfer—1021191M. Neumaier—12116113
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920WAug 4 · 11:00A. Mino1.07761141M. Neumaier7.0011113113
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