TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412185
Played Aug 14Finished
Marcel Neumaier
Home
1.09
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113111112––––
Nikolaosz Kizakisz
Away
5.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched — 71.4% is still 71.4%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
71.4%
71.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
39 points played in total.
Set by set
113111112––––
H2H Marcel Neumaier 1–0 Nikolaosz Kizakisz Nikolaosz Kizakisz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.09 (84%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Neumaier 1589 vs Kizakisz 1215
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 374 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neumaier 60% vs Kizakisz 20%
Neumaier
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neumaier 70% vs Kizakisz 20%
Neumaier
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neumaier +1 · Kizakisz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (60%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeumaier 1.09 / Kizakisz 5.80
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Neumaier)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412185
Neumaier1.09
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Kizakisz5.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNeumaier1wins
AwayKizakisz0wins
Neumaier leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNeumaierKizakiszN − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.06.0+27.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeumaierKizakiszBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 104 vs 10 / 5053.9%20%56 / 104 vs 10 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.11.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.028.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierNeumaier 1.09/Kizakisz 5.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.2%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier—1111113N. Kizakisz—3120
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920WAug 4 · 11:00A. Mino1.07761141M. Neumaier7.0011113113
N. Kizakisz10
LAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:30S. Almeida1.87115991N. Kizakisz1.8381111113WAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113WAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113WAug 20 · 11:00S. Almeida1.40111181002N. Kizakisz2.65791112113LAug 20 · 10:00M. Danzer—11511113N. Kizakisz—411371LAug 20 · 06:30E. Huzsvar1.0711117113N. Kizakisz6.25581151LAug 13 · 17:30L. Qiu—1111113N. Kizakisz—7350LAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340
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