TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412204
Played Aug 13Finished
Damian Zech
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1187117111012––
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 70.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 1–5 Marcel Neumaier Damian Zech has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:46What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Neumaier
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1408 vs Neumaier 1623
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 60% vs Neumaier 80%
Neumaier
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 40% vs Neumaier 70%
Neumaier
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +3 · Neumaier -1
Zech
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zech form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 4.33 / Neumaier 1.20
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Neumaier)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412204
Zech4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Neumaier1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZech1wins
AwayNeumaier5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderNeumaier leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZechn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNeumaier75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech2Neumaier4n = 6Neumaier took 4 of 6
S2Zech1Neumaier5n = 6Neumaier took 5 of 6
S3Zech2Neumaier4n = 6Neumaier took 4 of 6
S4Zech3Neumaier2n = 5Zech took 3 of 5
S5Zech1Neumaier2n = 3Neumaier took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricZechNeumaierZ − NBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.742.7−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 215 vs 56 / 10227%54.9%58 / 215 vs 56 / 102Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierZech 4.33/Neumaier 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.3%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LMar 12 · 10:00D. Zech—61161272M. Neumaier—1131110113
LFeb 12 · 09:00D. Zech—11961142M. Neumaier—611118113
LAug 14 · 10:30D. Zech—81370M. Neumaier—1115113
LJul 31 · 14:30D. Zech—1071151M. Neumaier—12119113
LJul 10 · 13:30D. Zech—1110361M. Neumaier—41211113
WMay 29 · 17:00D. Zech—851111113M. Neumaier—11119952
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920WAug 4 · 11:00A. Mino1.07761141M. Neumaier7.0011113113
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