TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12461698
Played Aug 20Finished
Damian Zech
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116117119––
Alex Moreno
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeDamian Zech to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Alex Moreno below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Damian Zech at 56.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 4–2 Alex Moreno Alex Moreno has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:00What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zech
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Zech
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1382 vs Moreno 1164
Zech
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 40% vs Moreno 0%
Zech
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 50% vs Moreno 10%
Zech
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech -1 · Moreno -5
Moreno
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Zech) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moreno form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 1.57 / Moreno 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Zech)+3.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12461698
Zech1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Moreno2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZech4wins
AwayMoreno2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderZech leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoreno33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech3Moreno3n = 6split evenly
S2Zech4Moreno2n = 6Zech took 4 of 6
S3Zech4Moreno2n = 6Zech took 4 of 6
S4Zech2Moreno2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricZechMorenoZ − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.036.8+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 220 vs 16 / 11826.8%13.6%59 / 220 vs 16 / 118Avg sets wonper match1.40.9per matchAvg pointsper match32.928.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZechZech 1.57/Moreno 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Zech · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech—91111113A. Moreno—116791
WJul 16 · 07:30D. Zech—11119113A. Moreno—561181
LMay 22 · 07:30D. Zech—4960A. Moreno—1111113
WApr 16 · 07:30D. Zech—1113113A. Moreno—41150
LMar 12 · 15:30D. Zech—11712762A. Moreno—5111011113
WJan 8 · 17:30D. Zech—411168143A. Moreno—1191411122
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271LAug 13 · 10:30O. Kosolosky1.03118911113D. Zech10.0011111762
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113
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