TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412197
Played Aug 13Finished
Dauud Cheaib
Home
1.01
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191171012117––
Damian Zech
Away
15.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeDauud Cheaib to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDauud Cheaib above · Damian Zech below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Dauud Cheaib at 58.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Dauud Cheaib 4–0 Damian Zech Damian Zech has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.01 (94%)
Cheaib
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Cheaib
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cheaib 1948 vs Zech 1400
Cheaib
Correct
both rated, 548 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cheaib 40% vs Zech 60%
Zech
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cheaib 70% vs Zech 30%
Cheaib
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cheaib +1 · Zech -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Cheaib) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zech form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (7%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCheaib 1.01 / Zech 15.00
Signal prob.94% / 6%
Edge (Cheaib)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412197
Cheaib1.01
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Zech15.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCheaib4wins
AwayZech0wins
Cheaib leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCheaib100%4 of 4
AwayZechn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cheaib4Zech0n = 4Cheaib took 4 of 4
S2Cheaib4Zech0n = 4Cheaib took 4 of 4
S3Cheaib3Zech1n = 4Cheaib took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCheaibZechC − ZBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match35.220.8+14.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCheaibZechBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 83 vs 58 / 21780.7%26.7%67 / 83 vs 58 / 217Avg sets wonper match2.71.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.032.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CheaibCheaib 1.01/Zech 15.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
93.7%
Cheaib · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cheaib won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 9 · 11:30D. Cheaib—1111113D. Zech—4440
WJan 8 · 15:30D. Cheaib—11117123D. Zech—8611101
WAug 22 · 06:30D. Cheaib—1211113D. Zech—10590
WAug 14 · 09:00D. Cheaib—1111113D. Zech—8130
D. Cheaib10
LAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171WAug 14 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.102750WAug 13 · 16:00D. Cheaib1.331110119113L. Qiu3.2551241192WAug 13 · 11:00D. Cheaib1.37481511123N. Kizakisz2.801111136102LAug 13 · 08:30O. Kosolosky2.751113113D. Cheaib1.4081130WAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920LApr 10 · 10:15D. Cheaib1.8320D. Rinderer1.8320
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 10:30O. Kosolosky1.03118911113D. Zech10.0011111762
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