TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412182
Played Aug 14Finished
Dauud Cheaib
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118112711117––
Manuel Kupfer
Away
10.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeDauud Cheaib to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDauud Cheaib above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-7
Point 64 set 4, 7-7 — our read held Dauud Cheaib at 59.5%
64 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (91%)
Cheaib
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Cheaib 1960 vs Kupfer 1152
Cheaib
Correct
both rated, 808 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cheaib 80% vs Kupfer 0%
Cheaib
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cheaib 70% vs Kupfer 10%
Cheaib
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cheaib +4 · Kupfer -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Cheaib) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cheaib form (80%) is below what odds imply (98%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCheaib 1.02 / Kupfer 10.50
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Cheaib)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412182
Cheaib1.02
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kupfer10.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricCheaibKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 89 vs 7 / 4180.9%17.1%72 / 89 vs 7 / 41Avg sets wonper match2.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.130.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CheaibCheaib 1.02/Kupfer 10.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.1%
Cheaib · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cheaib won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Cheaib10
LAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.102750WAug 13 · 16:00D. Cheaib1.331110119113L. Qiu3.2551241192WAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271WAug 13 · 11:00D. Cheaib1.37481511123N. Kizakisz2.801111136102LAug 13 · 08:30O. Kosolosky2.751113113D. Cheaib1.4081130WAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920LApr 10 · 10:15D. Cheaib1.8320D. Rinderer1.8320
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger1.0811111011163M. Kupfer7.00713126142LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.