TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480624
Played Aug 24Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.08
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117111310121161614
Manuel Kupfer
Away
7.00
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Manuel Kupfer below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 16-14
Point 111 set 5, 16-14 — our read held Marius Henninger at 67.8%
111 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Manuel Kupfer Manuel Kupfer has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1571 vs Kupfer 1186
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 385 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 40% vs Kupfer 0%
Henninger
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 20% vs Kupfer 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger -2 · Kupfer -5
Kupfer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kupfer form (0%) is below what odds imply (14%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.08 / Kupfer 7.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480624
Henninger1.08
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Kupfer7.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayKupfer0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHenninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerKupferH − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match59.052.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerKupferBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 88 vs 7 / 4351.1%16.3%45 / 88 vs 7 / 43Avg sets wonper match1.91.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.131.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.08/Kupfer 7.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.6%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 24 · 07:30M. Henninger—11111011163M. Kupfer—713126142
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113
M. Kupfer10
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113LAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950LAug 24 · 15:30M. Kupfer—131148102E. Huzsvar—1151111123LAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860LAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171LAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570LAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:00M. Kupfer—121111552N. Kizakisz—1013711113
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