TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412207
Played Aug 13Finished
Dauud Cheaib
Home
1.07
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119112––––
Marcel Neumaier
Away
7.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDauud Cheaib above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 49 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Dauud Cheaib 5–0 Marcel Neumaier Marcel Neumaier has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Cheaib
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Cheaib
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cheaib 1956 vs Neumaier 1589
Cheaib
Correct
both rated, 368 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cheaib 60% vs Neumaier 80%
Neumaier
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cheaib 80% vs Neumaier 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cheaib -2 · Neumaier +4
Neumaier
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Cheaib) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCheaib 1.07 / Neumaier 7.50
Signal prob.92% / 9%
Edge (Cheaib)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412207
Cheaib1.07
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Neumaier7.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCheaib5wins
AwayNeumaier0wins
Cheaib leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCheaib100%5 of 5
AwayNeumaiern = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cheaib5Neumaier0n = 5Cheaib took 5 of 5
S2Cheaib4Neumaier1n = 5Cheaib took 4 of 5
S3Cheaib5Neumaier0n = 5Cheaib took 5 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home480%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCheaibNeumaierC − NBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match35.022.4+12.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCheaibNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 93 vs 57 / 10680.7%53.8%75 / 93 vs 57 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CheaibCheaib 1.07/Neumaier 7.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.5%
Cheaib · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cheaib won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib—1111133M. Neumaier—96110
WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib—1111133M. Neumaier—96110
WAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib—1111113M. Neumaier—5920
WSep 26 · 08:30D. Cheaib—11611113M. Neumaier—511451
WAug 15 · 08:00D. Cheaib—1111113M. Neumaier—7750
D. Cheaib10
LAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110WAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171WAug 14 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.102750WAug 13 · 16:00D. Cheaib1.331110119113L. Qiu3.2551241192WAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271WAug 13 · 11:00D. Cheaib1.37481511123N. Kizakisz2.801111136102LAug 13 · 08:30O. Kosolosky2.751113113D. Cheaib1.4081130LApr 10 · 10:15D. Cheaib1.8320D. Rinderer1.8320
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123WAug 4 · 11:00A. Mino1.07761141M. Neumaier7.0011113113
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