TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412198
Played Aug 13Finished
Liang Qiu
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711911811––
Marcel Neumaier
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLiang Qiu above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Liang Qiu 2–1 Marcel Neumaier Marcel Neumaier has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Qiu
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Qiu 1584 vs Neumaier 1615
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Qiu 60% vs Neumaier 80%
Neumaier
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Qiu 70% vs Neumaier 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Qiu +1 · Neumaier +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Qiu) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsQiu 1.20 / Neumaier 4.33
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Qiu)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412198
Qiu1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Neumaier4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeQiu2wins
AwayNeumaier1wins
Qiu leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeQiu66.7%2 of 3
AwayNeumaiern = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Qiu3Neumaier0n = 3Qiu took 3 of 3
S2Qiu1Neumaier2n = 3Neumaier took 2 of 3
S3Qiu2Neumaier1n = 3Qiu took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricQiuNeumaierQ − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match36.031.3+4.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricQiuNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 54 vs 59 / 10640.7%55.7%22 / 54 vs 59 / 106Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
QiuQiu 1.20/Neumaier 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.3%
Qiu · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu—117981M. Neumaier—71111113
WFeb 23 · 16:30L. Qiu—12612103M. Neumaier—10111091
WMay 29 · 10:30L. Qiu—1111113M. Neumaier—5180
L. Qiu10
WAug 30 · 09:00L. Qiu1.30111011863T. Tregler3.4071261152WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151LAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:30L. Qiu1.0512119113A. Moreno8.501091191LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113WAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920WAug 4 · 11:00A. Mino1.07761141M. Neumaier7.0011113113
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