TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12461685
Played Aug 20Finished
Liang Qiu
Home
1.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119911119––
Alex Moreno
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 89.0% is still 89.0%
Graded at full timeLiang Qiu to win
89.0%
89.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLiang Qiu above · Alex Moreno below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Liang Qiu at 89.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Liang Qiu 1–0 Alex Moreno Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Qiu
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Qiu 1585 vs Moreno 1194
Qiu
Correct
both rated, 391 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Qiu 40% vs Moreno 0%
Qiu
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Qiu 40% vs Moreno 10%
Qiu
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Qiu -1 · Moreno -5
Moreno
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Qiu)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moreno form (0%) is below what odds imply (12%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsQiu 1.05 / Moreno 8.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Qiu)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12461685
Qiu1.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Moreno8.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeQiu1wins
AwayMoreno0wins
Qiu leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricQiuMorenoQ − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.024.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricQiuMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 56 vs 16 / 11241.1%14.3%23 / 56 vs 16 / 112Avg sets wonper match1.70.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.528.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
QiuQiu 1.05/Moreno 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89%
Qiu · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Qiu won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMay 25 · 09:30L. Qiu—1111113A. Moreno—7980
L. Qiu10
WAug 30 · 09:00L. Qiu1.30111011863T. Tregler3.4071261152WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151LAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113WAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 17:30L. Qiu—1111113N. Kizakisz—7350
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.