TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480623
Played Aug 24Finished
Pylyp Koloidenko
Home
1.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1618711119116611
Alex Moreno
Away
7.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timePylyp Koloidenko to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPylyp Koloidenko above · Alex Moreno below
Set 1 · 16-18
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 106 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Pylyp Koloidenko at 71.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Pylyp Koloidenko 4–0 Alex Moreno Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:12What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Koloidenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Koloidenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koloidenko 1405 vs Moreno 1162
Koloidenko
Wrong
both rated, 244 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koloidenko 40% vs Moreno 0%
Koloidenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koloidenko 30% vs Moreno 0%
Koloidenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koloidenko -1 · Moreno -5
Moreno
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Koloidenko) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moreno form (0%) is below what odds imply (14%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoloidenko 1.08 / Moreno 7.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Koloidenko)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480623
Koloidenko1.08
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Moreno7.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKoloidenko4wins
AwayMoreno0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKoloidenko leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoloidenko100%3 of 3
AwayMorenon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koloidenko3Moreno1n = 4Koloidenko took 3 of 4
S2Koloidenko4Moreno0n = 4Koloidenko took 4 of 4
S3Koloidenko3Moreno1n = 4Koloidenko took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKoloidenkoMorenoK − MBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.231.0+9.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoloidenkoMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 159 vs 16 / 11932.1%13.5%51 / 159 vs 16 / 119Avg sets wonper match1.50.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.228.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoloidenkoKoloidenko 1.08/Moreno 7.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
86.6%
Koloidenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moreno won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko—1211113A. Moreno—10730
WFeb 9 · 12:00P. Koloidenko—1111113A. Moreno—8460
WFeb 2 · 09:00P. Koloidenko—1014112143A. Moreno—1212311122
WNov 17 · 08:00P. Koloidenko—11138113A. Moreno—9111151
P. Koloidenko10
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113LAug 24 · 10:30P. Koloidenko4.50611771M. Henninger1.1711811113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730LApr 17 · 06:30P. Koloidenko2.1011111131Y. Rebetez1.6713136113LApr 16 · 16:00P. Koloidenko7.5091351162D. Rinderer1.071111114113WApr 16 · 12:30P. Koloidenko1.6111412123D. Zech2.2081110101
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730
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