TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480608
Played Aug 24Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611511––––
Matthias Danzer
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 89.0% is still 89.0%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
89.0%
89.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 89.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–7 Matthias Danzer Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:07What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Danzer
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1186 vs Danzer 1874
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 688 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Danzer 100%
Danzer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Danzer 90%
Danzer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -2 · Danzer +5
Danzer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 89% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 8.50 / Danzer 1.05
Signal prob.7% / 93%
Edge (Danzer)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480608
Moreno8.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Danzer1.05
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayDanzer7wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDanzer leads 7–0, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoreno0%0 of 3
AwayDanzer100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moreno3Danzer4n = 7Danzer took 4 of 7
S2Moreno0Danzer7n = 7Danzer took 7 of 7
S3Moreno1Danzer6n = 7Danzer took 6 of 7
S4Moreno0Danzer3n = 3Danzer took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away457%
These 7 meetings
MetricMorenoDanzerM − DBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match24.439.0−14.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 122 vs 203 / 27013.9%75.2%17 / 122 vs 203 / 270Avg sets wonper match0.92.5per matchAvg pointsper match28.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerMoreno 8.50/Danzer 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
93%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 20 · 11:30A. Moreno—8660M. Danzer—1111113
LJul 20 · 14:00A. Moreno—13311842M. Danzer—1111911113
LJul 16 · 17:00A. Moreno—95140M. Danzer—1111163
LMay 25 · 15:30A. Moreno—115551M. Danzer—91111113
LMay 21 · 09:30A. Moreno—6370M. Danzer—1111113
LMar 12 · 18:30A. Moreno—0930M. Danzer—1111113
LJan 12 · 15:30A. Moreno—117661M. Danzer—81111113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
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