TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480612
Played Aug 24Finished
Pylyp Koloidenko
Home
8.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1111113119811––
Matthias Danzer
Away
1.06
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPylyp Koloidenko above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 73.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pylyp Koloidenko 1–7 Matthias Danzer Pylyp Koloidenko has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Danzer
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koloidenko 1369 vs Danzer 1872
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 503 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koloidenko 20% vs Danzer 100%
Danzer
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koloidenko 30% vs Danzer 90%
Danzer
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koloidenko -3 · Danzer +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoloidenko 8.00 / Danzer 1.06
Signal prob.8% / 92%
Edge (Danzer)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480612
Koloidenko8.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Danzer1.06
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKoloidenko1wins
AwayDanzer7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderDanzer leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoloidenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayDanzer100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koloidenko3Danzer5n = 8Danzer took 5 of 8
S2Koloidenko1Danzer7n = 8Danzer took 7 of 8
S3Koloidenko2Danzer6n = 8Danzer took 6 of 8
S4Koloidenko2Danzer2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricKoloidenkoDanzerK − DBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match30.039.1−9.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoloidenkoDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 159 vs 202 / 26932.1%75.1%51 / 159 vs 202 / 269Avg sets wonper match1.52.5per matchAvg pointsper match33.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerKoloidenko 8.00/Danzer 1.06
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.3%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LMar 23 · 14:30P. Koloidenko—11461182M. Danzer—711118113
LMar 16 · 17:30P. Koloidenko—9770M. Danzer—1111113
LJan 19 · 17:00P. Koloidenko—610100M. Danzer—1112123
LNov 14 · 10:40P. Koloidenko—3460M. Danzer—1111113
LNov 13 · 09:30P. Koloidenko—2360M. Danzer—1111113
LOct 27 · 17:00P. Koloidenko—411121372M. Danzer—1181015113
WAug 12 · 07:30P. Koloidenko—111211113M. Danzer—814751
LApr 10 · 14:00P. Koloidenko—119871M. Danzer—91111113
P. Koloidenko10
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 10:30P. Koloidenko4.50611771M. Henninger1.1711811113LAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730LApr 17 · 06:30P. Koloidenko2.1011111131Y. Rebetez1.6713136113LApr 16 · 16:00P. Koloidenko7.5091351162D. Rinderer1.071111114113WApr 16 · 12:30P. Koloidenko1.6111412123D. Zech2.2081110101
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
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