TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480619
Played Aug 24Finished
Pylyp Koloidenko
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118711711––
Marius Henninger
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePylyp Koloidenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPylyp Koloidenko above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Pylyp Koloidenko at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Pylyp Koloidenko 0–3 Marius Henninger Pylyp Koloidenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:11What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Henninger
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koloidenko 1384 vs Henninger 1569
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koloidenko 20% vs Henninger 40%
Henninger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koloidenko 30% vs Henninger 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koloidenko -2 · Henninger -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (40%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoloidenko 4.50 / Henninger 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480619
Koloidenko4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Henninger1.17
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKoloidenko0wins
AwayHenninger3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHenninger leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koloidenko2Henninger1n = 3Koloidenko took 2 of 3
S2Koloidenko0Henninger3n = 3Henninger took 3 of 3
S3Koloidenko1Henninger2n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKoloidenkoHenningerK − HBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.743.7−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoloidenkoHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 159 vs 51 / 9732.1%52.6%51 / 159 vs 51 / 97Avg sets wonper match1.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.234.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerKoloidenko 4.50/Henninger 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LDec 1 · 08:30P. Koloidenko—112561M. Henninger—91111113
LSep 2 · 07:00P. Koloidenko—8690M. Henninger—1111113
LApr 28 · 10:30P. Koloidenko—12101110112M. Henninger—1012912133
P. Koloidenko10
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113LAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113WApr 17 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.081211113A. Moreno7.0010730LApr 17 · 06:30P. Koloidenko2.1011111131Y. Rebetez1.6713136113LApr 16 · 16:00P. Koloidenko7.5091351162D. Rinderer1.071111114113WApr 16 · 12:30P. Koloidenko1.6111412123D. Zech2.2081110101
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113
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