TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480605
Played Aug 24Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311711811117111
Viktor Yefimov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Viktor Yefimov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 91 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 1–3 Viktor Yefimov Matthias Danzer has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:07What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Yefimov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Yefimov
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danzer 1875 vs Yefimov 2019
Yefimov
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danzer 100% vs Yefimov 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danzer 90% vs Yefimov 90%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danzer +5 · Yefimov +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Yefimov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yefimov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.83 / Yefimov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Yefimov)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480605
Danzer1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Yefimov1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDanzer1wins
AwayYefimov3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderYefimov leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danzer2Yefimov2n = 4split evenly
S2Danzer3Yefimov1n = 4Danzer took 3 of 4
S3Danzer1Yefimov3n = 4Yefimov took 3 of 4
S4Danzer1Yefimov3n = 4Yefimov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDanzerYefimovD − YBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.845.8−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerYefimovBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 271 vs 59 / 6775.3%88.1%204 / 271 vs 59 / 67Avg sets wonper match2.52.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YefimovDanzer 1.83/Yefimov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Yefimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yefimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 18 · 16:00M. Danzer—111211121V. Yefimov—61413143
LJun 3 · 08:45M. Danzer—814761V. Yefimov—111211113
WJun 2 · 09:00M. Danzer—11123123V. Yefimov—81011101
LApr 10 · 17:30M. Danzer—41113792V. Yefimov—1181111113
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140WAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150
V. Yefimov10
WAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:15V. Yefimov1.101111113M. Henninger6.506780WAug 25 · 07:00E. Huzsvar—8980V. Yefimov—1111113WAug 24 · 14:30M. Henninger4.5011780V. Yefimov1.171311113WAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113LJul 14 · 11:00I. Bertrand1.16715411113V. Yefimov4.45111311892WJul 14 · 09:44V. Yefimov1.40391111113O. Kosolosky2.7511118682
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