TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480611
Played Aug 24Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711811––––
Viktor Yefimov
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Yefimov to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Viktor Yefimov below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Viktor Yefimov at 64.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 0–3 Viktor Yefimov Marius Henninger has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:09What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Yefimov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Yefimov
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1586 vs Yefimov 2016
Yefimov
Correct
both rated, 429 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 60% vs Yefimov 80%
Yefimov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 50% vs Yefimov 90%
Yefimov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +2 · Yefimov +4
Yefimov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Yefimov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 4.50 / Yefimov 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Yefimov)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480611
Henninger4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Yefimov1.17
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHenninger0wins
AwayYefimov3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderYefimov leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger1Yefimov2n = 3Yefimov took 2 of 3
S2Henninger0Yefimov3n = 3Yefimov took 3 of 3
S3Henninger1Yefimov2n = 3Yefimov took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricHenningerYefimovH − YBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match27.039.3−12.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerYefimovBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 97 vs 58 / 6652.6%87.9%51 / 97 vs 58 / 66Avg sets wonper match1.92.7per matchAvg pointsper match34.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YefimovHenninger 4.50/Yefimov 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Yefimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Yefimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 1 · 16:00M. Henninger—8820V. Yefimov—1111113
LAug 18 · 12:30M. Henninger—11813582V. Yefimov—8111111113
LJul 7 · 12:30M. Henninger—7380V. Yefimov—1111113
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113
V. Yefimov10
WAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:15V. Yefimov1.101111113M. Henninger6.506780WAug 25 · 07:00E. Huzsvar—8980V. Yefimov—1111113WAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113LJul 14 · 11:00I. Bertrand1.16715411113V. Yefimov4.45111311892WJul 14 · 09:44V. Yefimov1.40391111113O. Kosolosky2.7511118682
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