TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480618
Played Aug 24Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
7.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711611––––
Viktor Yefimov
Away
1.07
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 80.8% is still 80.8%
Graded at full timeViktor Yefimov to win
80.8%
80.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Viktor Yefimov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Viktor Yefimov at 80.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–1 Viktor Yefimov Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Yefimov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1190 vs Yefimov 2015
Yefimov
Correct
both rated, 825 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Yefimov 80%
Yefimov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Yefimov 80%
Yefimov
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno +1 · Yefimov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Yefimov) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yefimov form (80%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 7.50 / Yefimov 1.07
Signal prob.13% / 88%
Edge (Yefimov)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480618
Moreno7.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Yefimov1.07
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayYefimov1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderYefimov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMorenoYefimovM − YBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match45.052.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoYefimovBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 120 vs 56 / 6414.2%87.5%17 / 120 vs 56 / 64Avg sets wonper match0.92.7per matchAvg pointsper match28.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YefimovMoreno 7.50/Yefimov 1.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.5%
Yefimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Yefimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 13 · 14:00A. Moreno—101111762V. Yefimov—129911113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
V. Yefimov10
WAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:15V. Yefimov1.101111113M. Henninger6.506780WAug 25 · 07:00E. Huzsvar—8980V. Yefimov—1111113WAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 14:30M. Henninger4.5011780V. Yefimov1.171311113WAug 24 · 13:00M. Kupfer4.509370V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113WAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113LJul 14 · 11:00I. Bertrand1.16715411113V. Yefimov4.45111311892WJul 14 · 09:44V. Yefimov1.40391111113O. Kosolosky2.7511118682
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