TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12480615
Played Aug 24Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116911611––
Marius Henninger
Away
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 70.2% is still 70.2%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
70.2%
70.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Marius Henninger at 70.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–1 Marius Henninger Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1190 vs Henninger 1583
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 394 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Henninger 40%
Henninger
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Henninger 40%
Henninger
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -1 · Henninger +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (40%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 6.00 / Henninger 1.11
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Henninger)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12480615
Moreno6.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Henninger1.11
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayHenninger1wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMorenoHenningerM − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match32.043.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 121 vs 51 / 9714.1%52.6%17 / 121 vs 51 / 97Avg sets wonper match0.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match28.434.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerMoreno 6.00/Henninger 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJan 12 · 08:30A. Moreno—791241M. Henninger—111110113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:00A. Moreno—541161N. Kizakisz—11115113
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161LAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113
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