TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12461695
Played Aug 20Finished
Liang Qiu
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511311––––
Daniel Rinderer
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeDaniel Rinderer to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLiang Qiu above · Daniel Rinderer below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 47 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Daniel Rinderer at 71.8%
47 points played in total.
H2H Liang Qiu 0–7 Daniel Rinderer Liang Qiu has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Rinderer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Rinderer
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Qiu 1588 vs Rinderer 1872
Rinderer
Correct
both rated, 284 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Qiu 60% vs Rinderer 80%
Rinderer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Qiu 50% vs Rinderer 90%
Rinderer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Qiu +1 · Rinderer +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Rinderer) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Qiu form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsQiu 3.40 / Rinderer 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Rinderer)+3.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12461695
Qiu3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Rinderer1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeQiu0wins
AwayRinderer7wins
3 of 7 to a deciderRinderer leads 7–0, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeQiu0%0 of 3
AwayRinderer100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Qiu3Rinderer4n = 7Rinderer took 4 of 7
S2Qiu3Rinderer4n = 7Rinderer took 4 of 7
S3Qiu0Rinderer7n = 7Rinderer took 7 of 7
S4Qiu0Rinderer3n = 3Rinderer took 3 of 3
S5Qiu0Rinderer3n = 3Rinderer took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away457%
These 7 meetings
MetricQiuRindererQ − RBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.442.7−9.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricQiuRindererBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 57 vs 120 / 17142.1%70.2%24 / 57 vs 120 / 171Avg sets wonper match1.82.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RindererQiu 3.40/Rinderer 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Rinderer · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rinderer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 23 · 10:00L. Qiu—1110100D. Rinderer—1312123
LJul 23 · 09:00L. Qiu—1110100D. Rinderer—1312123
LApr 9 · 12:30L. Qiu—17114372D. Rinderer—1591111113
LFeb 23 · 08:30L. Qiu—11118392D. Rinderer—691111113
LMay 29 · 14:30L. Qiu—9680D. Rinderer—1111113
LMar 14 · 11:30L. Qiu—111113752D. Rinderer—981511113
LMar 13 · 16:30L. Qiu—5670D. Rinderer—1111113
L. Qiu10
WAug 30 · 09:00L. Qiu1.30111011863T. Tregler3.4071261152WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151WAug 20 · 09:30L. Qiu1.0512119113A. Moreno8.501091191LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113WAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 17:30L. Qiu—1111113N. Kizakisz—7350
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:30M. Danzer1.731111113D. Rinderer2.006890WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680WJul 24 · 11:00D. Rinderer—1112113J. Loffler—81070
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