TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12461686
Played Aug 20Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Daniel Rinderer
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Daniel Rinderer below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 5–5 Daniel Rinderer Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danzer 1833 vs Rinderer 1878
Rinderer
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danzer 100% vs Rinderer 80%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danzer 100% vs Rinderer 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danzer +5 · Rinderer +2
Danzer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Danzer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinderer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.73 / Rinderer 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Danzer)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #12461686
Danzer1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Rinderer2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanzer5wins
AwayRinderer5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanzer71.4%5 of 7
AwayRinderer100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danzer7Rinderer3n = 10Danzer took 7 of 10
S2Danzer2Rinderer8n = 10Rinderer took 8 of 10
S3Danzer8Rinderer2n = 10Danzer took 8 of 10
S4Danzer6Rinderer2n = 8Danzer took 6 of 8
S5Danzer0Rinderer4n = 4Rinderer took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanzerRindererD − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.5+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerRindererBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 260 vs 121 / 17274.6%70.4%194 / 260 vs 121 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.73/Rinderer 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 20 · 09:30M. Danzer—6760D. Rinderer—1111113
WMay 22 · 10:00M. Danzer—11912163D. Rinderer—51110141
WMay 21 · 13:00M. Danzer—11411113D. Rinderer—811361
LApr 9 · 08:30M. Danzer—114123112D. Rinderer—6111011133
LMar 17 · 12:00M. Danzer—10111211112D. Rinderer—126149133
WMar 16 · 13:30M. Danzer—11811113D. Rinderer—511781
WSep 15 · 12:00M. Danzer—141111113D. Rinderer—1213861
LAug 19 · 11:00M. Danzer—116111062D. Rinderer—811712113
WAug 18 · 09:30M. Danzer—1111113D. Rinderer—9980
LMay 15 · 16:00M. Danzer—541111102D. Rinderer—111164123
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113WAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680WJul 24 · 11:00D. Rinderer—1112113J. Loffler—81070
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