TT Lossbeater/Champions League
Champions LeagueMatch #13046449
Played Aug 30Finished
Liang Qiu
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117101211681165
Tomas Tregler
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:07 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Tregler to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLiang Qiu above · Tomas Tregler below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-5
Point 79 set 5, 6-5 — our read held Tomas Tregler at 56.0%
79 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:07What took a side0 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Qiu
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Qiu 40% vs Tregler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Qiu 50% vs Tregler 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Qiu +1 · Tregler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Qiu) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tregler form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsQiu 1.30 / Tregler 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Qiu)-0.0pp
Champions League · #13046449
Qiu1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Tregler3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricQiuTreglerBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 4 / 1050%40%5 / 10 vs 4 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
QiuQiu 1.30/Tregler 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Qiu · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Qiu won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Qiu10
WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151LAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:30L. Qiu1.0512119113A. Moreno8.501091191LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113WAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 17:30L. Qiu—1111113N. Kizakisz—7350
T. Tregler10
WSep 3 · 16:26T. Tregler2.38971111143J. Martinko1.53111197122WAug 30 · 08:18T. Tregler1.051111113R. Dutta8.504750LJan 29 · 18:00T. Tregler2.251171391T. Konecny1.5791115113LSep 11 · 16:06G. Gomez1.83811126113T. Tregler1.83114101162LAug 19 · 13:30V. Brodd1.331111113T. Tregler3.258780WAug 19 · 11:55B. Tokic1.8391771142T. Tregler1.831115117113WAug 19 · 10:00T. Tregler1.831111113M. Horejsi1.839880LAug 19 · 08:00T. Tregler1.919330B. Tokic1.801111113LAug 19 · 06:00T. Tregler2.00711851V. Brodd1.7311811113LAug 18 · 12:00T. Tregler1.8341151172C. Muhlbach1.83115117113
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