TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12412184
Played Aug 14Finished
Damian Zech
Home
7.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1517114911611––
Liang Qiu
Away
1.07
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched — 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timeLiang Qiu to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Liang Qiu below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 4-11
Point 47 set 2, 4-11 — our read held Liang Qiu at 69.3%
47 points drawn · the score is 37 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Damian Zech 2–10 Liang Qiu Damian Zech has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Qiu
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Qiu
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1422 vs Qiu 1593
Qiu
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 40% vs Qiu 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 50% vs Qiu 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +2 · Qiu +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Qiu) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Qiu form (40%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 7.50 / Qiu 1.07
Signal prob.9% / 92%
Edge (Qiu)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12412184
Zech7.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Qiu1.07
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZech2wins
AwayQiu8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderQiu leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZechn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayQiu88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech1Qiu9n = 10Qiu took 9 of 10
S2Zech4Qiu6n = 10Qiu took 6 of 10
S3Zech2Qiu8n = 10Qiu took 8 of 10
S4Zech0Qiu5n = 5Qiu took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricZechQiuZ − QBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match30.337.7−7.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechQiuBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 214 vs 23 / 5527.1%41.8%58 / 214 vs 23 / 55Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
QiuZech 7.50/Qiu 1.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.5%
Qiu · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Qiu won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech—1511961L. Qiu—17411113
LJul 24 · 07:30D. Zech—811961L. Qiu—11811113
WJun 18 · 10:30D. Zech—611116113L. Qiu—11771142
WApr 9 · 07:28D. Zech—1111611113L. Qiu—77111382
LJun 5 · 16:30D. Zech—7970L. Qiu—1111113
LMay 29 · 07:30D. Zech—781131L. Qiu—11115113
LMay 1 · 16:00D. Zech—4950L. Qiu—1111113
LApr 21 · 16:30D. Zech—111130L. Qiu—1313113
LApr 18 · 07:30D. Zech—8760L. Qiu—1111113
LMar 13 · 08:30D. Zech—8360L. Qiu—1111113
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271LAug 13 · 10:30O. Kosolosky1.03118911113D. Zech10.0011111762
L. Qiu10
WAug 30 · 09:00L. Qiu1.30111011863T. Tregler3.4071261152WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151LAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:30L. Qiu1.0512119113A. Moreno8.501091191LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113WAug 13 · 17:30L. Qiu—1111113N. Kizakisz—7350
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