Dauud Cheaib vs Liang Qiu 3-2 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TTMatch #12412190

Played Aug 13Finished

Dauud Cheaib

Home

1.33

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1151012114911119

Liang Qiu

Away

3.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Liang Qiu to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingDauud Cheaib above · Liang Qiu below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Liang Qiu at 54.0%

93 points played in total.

H2H Dauud Cheaib 3–0 Liang Qiu Liang Qiu has won 0 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 3–0Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 13:43

What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Cheaib

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

3-0 in 3

Cheaib

Correct

gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Cheaib 1956 vs Qiu 1584

Cheaib

Correct

both rated, 372 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Cheaib 60% vs Qiu 40%

Cheaib

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Cheaib 70% vs Qiu 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Cheaib +2 · Qiu -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Cheaib) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cheaib form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsCheaib 1.33 / Qiu 3.25

Signal prob.71% / 29%

Edge (Cheaib)-0.0pp

Challenger Series TT · #12412190

Cheaib1.33

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Qiu3.25

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeCheaib3wins

AwayQiu0wins

2 of 3 to a deciderCheaib leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeCheaib100%3 of 3

AwayQiun = 0, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Cheaib3Qiu0n = 3Cheaib took 3 of 3

S2Cheaib0Qiu3n = 3Qiu took 3 of 3

S3Cheaib2Qiu1n = 3Cheaib took 2 of 3

S4Cheaib2Qiu1n = 3Cheaib took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home133%

3–2Decider, home267%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 3 meetings

MetricCheaibQiuC − QBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match48.037.3+10.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricCheaibQiuBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 88 vs 22 / 5480.7%40.7%71 / 88 vs 22 / 54Avg sets wonper match2.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Cheaib

Cheaib 1.33/Qiu 3.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

70.9%

Cheaib · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Cheaib won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

WAug 13 · 16:00D. Cheaib—1110119113L. Qiu—51241192

WJan 28 · 11:55D. Cheaib—128711113L. Qiu—101111582

WJan 27 · 14:30D. Cheaib—111011113L. Qiu—412551

D. Cheaib10

LAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352 WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110 WAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110 WAug 14 · 08:30D. Cheaib1.0211117113M. Kupfer10.50821171 WAug 14 · 06:30D. Cheaib1.601111113M. Stefanidis2.102750 WAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271 WAug 13 · 11:00D. Cheaib1.37481511123N. Kizakisz2.801111136102 LAug 13 · 08:30O. Kosolosky2.751113113D. Cheaib1.4081130 WAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920 LApr 10 · 10:15D. Cheaib1.8320D. Rinderer1.8320

L. Qiu10

WAug 30 · 09:00L. Qiu1.30111011863T. Tregler3.4071261152 WAug 30 · 08:00L. Qiu3.0011113113T. Polansky1.36791151 LAug 29 · 09:42L. Qiu—11911652J. Piccolin—71131163 WAug 29 · 08:00L. Qiu—76111363G. Camara—111151152 LAug 28 · 08:00L. Qiu—2D. Prokopcov—3 LAug 20 · 14:00E. Huzsvar—11117113L. Qiu—471151 LAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113 WAug 20 · 09:30L. Qiu1.0512119113A. Moreno8.501091191 LAug 20 · 08:00L. Qiu3.2510640M. Danzer1.331211113 WAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113

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