TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12394538
Played Aug 11Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
6.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117511311––
Matthias Danzer
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:02 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
811117511311––
H2H Johannes Willeke 0–1 Matthias Danzer Johannes Willeke has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (86%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1371 vs Danzer 1815
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 444 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 80% vs Danzer 100%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 40% vs Danzer 70%
Danzer
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke +1 · Danzer +5
Danzer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Willeke form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 6.70 / Danzer 1.05
Signal prob.14% / 87%
Edge (Danzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12394538
Willeke6.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Danzer1.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWilleke0wins
AwayDanzer1wins
Danzer leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricWillekeDanzerW − DBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match19.034.0−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 35 vs 197 / 26331.4%74.9%11 / 35 vs 197 / 263Avg sets wonper match1.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match30.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerWilleke 6.70/Danzer 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.5%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJan 9 · 10:30J. Willeke—10720M. Danzer—1211113
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 08:00J. Willeke8.00811531M. Danzer1.0611711113
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