TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034074
Played Aug 31Finished
Samuel Amann
Home
8.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
41171148––––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.05
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSamuel Amann above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-8
Point 45 set 3, 4-8 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Amann 0–4 Kirill Fadeev Samuel Amann has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Fadeev
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Amann 1143 vs Fadeev 1658
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 515 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Amann 20% vs Fadeev 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Amann 30% vs Fadeev 50%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Amann -2 · Fadeev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (20%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAmann 8.50 / Fadeev 1.05
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Fadeev)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034074
Amann8.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Fadeev1.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAmann0wins
AwayFadeev4wins
Fadeev leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAmannn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayFadeev100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Amann0Fadeev4n = 4Fadeev took 4 of 4
S2Amann3Fadeev1n = 4Amann took 3 of 4
S3Amann0Fadeev4n = 4Fadeev took 4 of 4
S4Amann0Fadeev3n = 3Fadeev took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away375%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricAmannFadeevA − FBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match30.238.2−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAmannFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime10 / 57 vs 99 / 14817.5%66.9%10 / 57 vs 99 / 148Avg sets wonper match1.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match30.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevAmann 8.50/Fadeev 1.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LDec 22 · 09:00S. Amann—211571K. Fadeev—11811113
LJul 28 · 11:00S. Amann—11111291K. Fadeev—13514113
LJul 4 · 08:30S. Amann—711881K. Fadeev—11311113
LJun 23 · 17:30S. Amann—8650K. Fadeev—1111113
S. Amann10
LSep 1 · 06:30S. Almeida—1111113S. Amann—9630LAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431LAug 31 · 15:00A. Limonov1.041111113S. Amann9.002860LAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113LAug 31 · 10:30S. Amann2.10118771M. Stefanidis1.6651111113WAug 31 · 08:00M. Gremillion1.3611341362S. Amann3.008111111113LAug 11 · 06:30J. Willeke1.201111113S. Amann4.334870LAug 10 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3211611113S. Amann3.00811891WAug 10 · 13:00J. Grauer2.00811471S. Amann1.7311811113WAug 10 · 12:00S. Amann1.281111113M. Ozdemir3.506680
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.