TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12377163
Played Aug 7Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
6.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119911119––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLuis Kraus above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 78.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Luis Kraus 1–10 Kirill Fadeev Luis Kraus has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:15What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Fadeev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Fadeev
Wrong
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1464 vs Fadeev 1719
Fadeev
Wrong
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 0% vs Fadeev 60%
Fadeev
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 40% vs Fadeev 60%
Fadeev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus -5 · Fadeev -2
Kraus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 6.50 / Fadeev 1.10
Signal prob.6% / 94%
Edge (Fadeev)+8.8pp
Challenger Series TT · #12377163
Kraus6.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Fadeev1.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKraus1wins
AwayFadeev9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFadeev leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKraus33.3%1 of 3
AwayFadeev100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kraus3Fadeev7n = 10Fadeev took 7 of 10
S2Kraus0Fadeev10n = 10Fadeev took 10 of 10
S3Kraus1Fadeev9n = 10Fadeev took 9 of 10
S4Kraus2Fadeev1n = 3Kraus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrausFadeevK − FBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.336.6−10.3per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 239 vs 104 / 15237.7%68.4%90 / 239 vs 104 / 152Avg sets wonper match1.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match31.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevKraus 6.50/Fadeev 1.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
94.3%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 15:00L. Kraus—1115711112K. Fadeev—717115133
LJul 6 · 07:00L. Kraus—7950K. Fadeev—1111113
LJun 29 · 09:00L. Kraus—4550K. Fadeev—1111113
WJun 15 · 14:30L. Kraus—13811113K. Fadeev—1111861
LMay 18 · 13:30L. Kraus—124841K. Fadeev—101111113
LFeb 17 · 11:30L. Kraus—711100K. Fadeev—1113123
LFeb 16 · 08:00L. Kraus—4780K. Fadeev—1111113
LSep 16 · 08:30L. Kraus—6660K. Fadeev—1111113
LJul 28 · 08:30L. Kraus—6480K. Fadeev—1111113
LJul 4 · 11:00L. Kraus—7480K. Fadeev—1111113
L. Kraus10
LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121WAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112
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