TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354463
Played Aug 3Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113119119––
Luis Kraus
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeLuis Kraus to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Luis Kraus at 60.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Makoto Nogami 2–0 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:35What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nogami
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nogami 1443 vs Kraus 1495
Kraus
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nogami 60% vs Kraus 20%
Nogami
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nogami 40% vs Kraus 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nogami +2 · Kraus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nogami) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 1.61 / Kraus 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Nogami)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354463
Nogami1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kraus2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNogami2wins
AwayKraus0wins
Nogami leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNogamiKrausN − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.528.5+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 41 vs 86 / 23226.8%37.1%11 / 41 vs 86 / 232Avg sets wonper match1.41.5per matchAvg pointsper match32.231.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NogamiNogami 1.61/Kraus 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Nogami · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nogami won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WMay 7 · 15:00M. Nogami—111311113L. Kraus—815771
WApr 20 · 11:30M. Nogami—1111113L. Kraus—6590
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113
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