TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12351658
Played Aug 3Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511811––––
Makoto Nogami
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMakoto Nogami to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Makoto Nogami below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Makoto Nogami at 60.8%
52 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Nogami
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1375 vs Nogami 1404
Nogami
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 20% vs Nogami 40%
Nogami
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 20% vs Nogami 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -2 · Nogami -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Nogami) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nogami form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 3.25 / Nogami 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Nogami)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351658
Willeke3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Nogami1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeNogamiBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 26 vs 9 / 3926.9%23.1%7 / 26 vs 9 / 39Avg sets wonper match1.31.3per matchAvg pointsper match30.231.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NogamiWilleke 3.25/Nogami 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Nogami · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nogami won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
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