TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12351672
Played Aug 3Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
1.13
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131131210––––
Lars Hubner
Away
5.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–7Last 9Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMakoto Nogami to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Lars Hubner below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 50 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Makoto Nogami at 79.4%
50 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Nogami
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Nogami 1402 vs Hubner 1176
Nogami
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nogami 20% vs Hubner 40%
Hubner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nogami 10% vs Hubner 22%
—
Too close
12pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nogami -2 · Hubner -3
Hubner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Nogami) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubner form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 1.13 / Hubner 5.50
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Nogami)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351672
Nogami1.13
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Hubner5.50
22%won 2 of 9 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiHubnerBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 37 vs 2 / 921.6%22.2%8 / 37 vs 2 / 9Avg sets wonper match1.20.9per matchAvg pointsper match31.827.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NogamiNogami 1.13/Hubner 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Nogami · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nogami won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
L. Hubner10
LAug 4 · 08:00K. Zimmermann1.041111113L. Hubner9.006130LAug 4 · 07:00L. Hubner9.004191451M. Neumaier1.04111716113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Mino1.011111113L. Hubner12.008760LAug 3 · 13:30L. Kraus1.0611117113L. Hubner8.00641151LAug 3 · 12:00J. Loffler—1111113L. Hubner—5860LAug 3 · 07:00J. Willeke1.101111113L. Hubner6.509860LJul 24 · 08:00L. Hubner10.00671361D. Rinderer1.03111111113LJul 23 · 17:00L. Hubner9.0091140J. Loffler1.041113113WJul 23 · 15:30L. Hubner2.4011913133S. Amann1.5091111111WJul 23 · 14:59L. Hubner2.5011913133S. Amann1.5091111111
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