TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354462
Played Aug 4Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
7.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116117117––
Jeromy Loffler
Away
1.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeJeromy Loffler to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
811116117117––
H2H Makoto Nogami 1–3 Jeromy Loffler Makoto Nogami has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:35What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (87%)
Loffler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Loffler
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nogami 1455 vs Loffler 1709
Loffler
Wrong
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nogami 80% vs Loffler 60%
Nogami
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nogami 50% vs Loffler 70%
Loffler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nogami +3 · Loffler -1
Nogami
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Loffler) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Loffler form (60%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 7.25 / Loffler 1.05
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Loffler)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354462
Nogami7.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Loffler1.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNogami1wins
AwayLoffler3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLoffler leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNogamin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLoffler75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nogami0Loffler4n = 4Loffler took 4 of 4
S2Nogami2Loffler2n = 4split evenly
S3Nogami2Loffler2n = 4split evenly
S4Nogami2Loffler1n = 3Nogami took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricNogamiLofflerN − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match32.838.0−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiLofflerBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 45 vs 73 / 13228.9%55.3%13 / 45 vs 73 / 132Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.935.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LofflerNogami 7.25/Loffler 1.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
87.3%
Loffler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nogami won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami—81111113J. Loffler—116771
LApr 2 · 12:00M. Nogami—1011571J. Loffler—12811113
LApr 8 · 09:15M. Nogami—71111152J. Loffler—111139113
LJan 13 · 11:30M. Nogami—41080J. Loffler—1112113
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
J. Loffler10
LAug 3 · 17:30J. Loffler—118621M. Neumaier—91111113WAug 3 · 16:00J. Willeke—631291J. Loffler—111110113WAug 3 · 14:00K. Zimmermann2.6012118141J. Loffler1.4214211163WAug 3 · 12:00J. Loffler—1111113L. Hubner—5860LAug 3 · 09:30J. Loffler2.357380A. Mino1.501111113WAug 3 · 08:00J. Loffler1.27811911113L. Kraus3.2511311692LJul 28 · 11:00O. Kosolosky1.221111113J. Loffler3.804620WJul 28 · 09:45J. Loffler1.321111113K. Zimmermann3.006770WJul 28 · 07:30N. Kizakisz6.256640J. Loffler1.081111113WJul 27 · 17:30J. Loffler1.22111111113M. Fuchs3.75571381
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