TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359921
Played Aug 4Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1175111181113711
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11
95 points played in total.
H2H Makoto Nogami 1–0 Marcel Neumaier Marcel Neumaier has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neumaier)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nogami form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 1.83 / Neumaier 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Neumaier)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12359921
Nogami1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Neumaier1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNogami1wins
AwayNeumaier0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderNogami leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNogamiNeumaierNogami − NeumaierBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.045.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 43 vs 54 / 9930.2%54.6%13 / 43 vs 54 / 99Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierNogami 1.83/Neumaier 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami—1011811113M. Neumaier—12411992
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992
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