TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12351678
Played Aug 3Finished
Karl Zimmermann
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114911112––
Makoto Nogami
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Makoto Nogami below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 67 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 55.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 1–0 Makoto Nogami Makoto Nogami has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1509 vs Nogami 1417
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 40% vs Nogami 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 60% vs Nogami 20%
Zimmermann
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +1 · Nogami +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zimmermann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 1.67 / Nogami 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zimmermann)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351678
Zimmermann1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nogami2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZimmermann1wins
AwayNogami0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderZimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZimmermannNogamiZ − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.042.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannNogamiBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 22 vs 9 / 3850%23.7%11 / 22 vs 9 / 38Avg sets wonper match1.71.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.231.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannZimmermann 1.67/Nogami 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 27 · 12:00K. Zimmermann—111198113M. Nogami—92111192
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
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