TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12377239
Played Aug 7Finished
Alberto Mino
Home
1.08
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116711611116112
Karl Zimmermann
Away
5.40
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 90.3% is still 90.3%
Graded at full timeAlberto Mino to win
90.3%
90.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlberto Mino above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 82 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Alberto Mino at 90.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Alberto Mino 3–0 Karl Zimmermann Karl Zimmermann has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (83%)
Mino
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Mino
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mino 1879 vs Zimmermann 1650
Mino
Correct
both rated, 229 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mino 100% vs Zimmermann 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mino 90% vs Zimmermann 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mino +5 · Zimmermann +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Mino)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (19%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMino 1.08 / Zimmermann 5.40
Signal prob.90% / 10%
Edge (Mino)+7.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12377239
Mino1.08
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Zimmermann5.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMino3wins
AwayZimmermann0wins
Mino leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMino100%3 of 3
AwayZimmermannn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mino3Zimmermann0n = 3Mino took 3 of 3
S2Mino2Zimmermann1n = 3Mino took 2 of 3
S3Mino3Zimmermann0n = 3Mino took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMinoZimmermannM − ZBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.026.0+11.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMinoZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 25 vs 22 / 3780%59.5%20 / 25 vs 22 / 37Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.834.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MinoMino 1.08/Zimmermann 5.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.3%
Mino · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mino won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 6 · 07:00A. Mino—1111113K. Zimmermann—9460
WAug 4 · 09:15A. Mino—1111113K. Zimmermann—8590
WAug 3 · 17:00A. Mino—14911113K. Zimmermann—1211681
A. Mino10
LSep 3 · 06:10A. Mino3.403790F. Bourrassaud1.301111113WSep 2 · 12:10A. Shulaybi4.33611111062A. Mino1.20117412113WSep 2 · 06:15D. Shi—6450A. Mino—1111113LAug 26 · 17:25A. Mino3.00114991R. Castro1.3681111113WAug 26 · 10:20P. Dziuba2.6311671192A. Mino1.44611119113WAug 25 · 09:45A. Mino2.201111711113J. Skalda1.5713411972LAug 24 · 14:00A. Mino1.364820Y. Yu3.001111113WAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530WAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181WAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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