TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357981
Played Aug 7Finished
Alberto Mino
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1188111012118112
Luis Kraus
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:05 and never touched — 72.6% is still 72.6%
Graded at full timeAlberto Mino to win
72.6%
72.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlberto Mino above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 92 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Alberto Mino at 72.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Alberto Mino 2–0 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Mino
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mino 1889 vs Kraus 1487
Mino
Correct
both rated, 402 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mino 100% vs Kraus 40%
Mino
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mino 90% vs Kraus 50%
Mino
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mino +5 · Kraus -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Mino) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMino 1.17 / Kraus 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Mino)+7.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357981
Mino1.17
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kraus4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMino2wins
AwayKraus0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMino leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMinoKrausM − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.028.5+13.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMinoKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 26 vs 86 / 23380.8%36.9%21 / 26 vs 86 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.61.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.231.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MinoMino 1.17/Kraus 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.4%
Mino · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mino won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino—1181011113L. Kraus—81112822
WAug 3 · 11:30A. Mino—1111113L. Kraus—4480
A. Mino10
LSep 3 · 06:10A. Mino3.403790F. Bourrassaud1.301111113WSep 2 · 12:10A. Shulaybi4.33611111062A. Mino1.20117412113WSep 2 · 06:15D. Shi—6450A. Mino—1111113LAug 26 · 17:25A. Mino3.00114991R. Castro1.3681111113WAug 26 · 10:20P. Dziuba2.6311671192A. Mino1.44611119113WAug 25 · 09:45A. Mino2.201111711113J. Skalda1.5713411972LAug 24 · 14:00A. Mino1.364820Y. Yu3.001111113WAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530WAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
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