TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357989
Played Aug 6Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
2.15
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1156111171012117
Tobias Saltzer
Away
1.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeTobias Saltzer to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1156111171012117
H2H Luis Kraus 1–3 Tobias Saltzer Luis Kraus has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Saltzer
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Saltzer
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1499 vs Saltzer 1590
Saltzer
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 60% vs Saltzer 80%
Saltzer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 40% vs Saltzer 80%
Saltzer
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus +3 · Saltzer +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Saltzer) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saltzer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 2.15 / Saltzer 1.63
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Saltzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357989
Kraus2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Saltzer1.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKraus1wins
AwaySaltzer3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSaltzer leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrausn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySaltzer66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kraus1Saltzer3n = 4Saltzer took 3 of 4
S2Kraus2Saltzer2n = 4split evenly
S3Kraus1Saltzer3n = 4Saltzer took 3 of 4
S4Kraus2Saltzer2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKrausSaltzerK − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.243.2−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausSaltzerBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 236 vs 41 / 8337.7%49.4%89 / 236 vs 41 / 83Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match31.334.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SaltzerKraus 2.15/Saltzer 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Saltzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMay 4 · 10:00L. Kraus—118581T. Saltzer—71111113
LMar 19 · 09:00L. Kraus—511871T. Saltzer—11811113
WJul 8 · 10:30L. Kraus—711711113T. Saltzer—11911982
LJul 7 · 06:30L. Kraus—59111172T. Saltzer—111147113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
T. Saltzer10
LAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181LAug 6 · 17:00K. Fadeev—1211113T. Saltzer—10720LAug 6 · 15:30T. Saltzer—9660K. Zimmermann—1111113WAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890WAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113WAug 6 · 07:30D. Zech1.3011911892T. Saltzer3.20711811113WJul 7 · 10:40K. Fadeev—115651T. Saltzer—91111113LJul 7 · 09:45T. Saltzer3.855116101E. Mendes1.2011711123WJul 7 · 07:00K. Fadeev1.14112931T. Saltzer4.7091111113WJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.