TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357986
Played Aug 6Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811711118118511
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLuis Kraus above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 64.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Luis Kraus 0–1 Karl Zimmermann Luis Kraus has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1515 vs Zimmermann 1553
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 80% vs Zimmermann 60%
Kraus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 50% vs Zimmermann 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus +4 · Zimmermann +2
Kraus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 2.50 / Zimmermann 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Zimmermann)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357986
Kraus2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Zimmermann1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKraus0wins
AwayZimmermann1wins
Zimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricKrausZimmermannK − ZBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match20.033.0−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 237 vs 17 / 3238%53.1%90 / 237 vs 17 / 32Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match31.433.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannKraus 2.50/Zimmermann 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 3 · 15:00L. Kraus—4880K. Zimmermann—1111113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622
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