TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357991
Played Aug 6Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117113––––
Timo Freund
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–7Last 8Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTimo Freund to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLuis Kraus above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Timo Freund at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kraus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1492 vs Freund 1230
Kraus
Correct
both rated, 263 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 60% vs Freund 20%
Kraus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 30% vs Freund 13%
Kraus
Correct
18pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus +2 · Freund -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kraus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 1.25 / Freund 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kraus)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357991
Kraus1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Freund3.75
13%won 1 of 8 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest13%takes the first set · 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 235 vs 1 / 737.5%14.3%88 / 235 vs 1 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match31.329.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausKraus 1.25/Freund 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kraus won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
T. Freund10
LAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann1.1711118113T. Freund4.50551191LAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272WAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311119292T. Freund2.38931111113LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino1.051111113T. Freund8.507880LAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev1.0314811113T. Freund10.001211671LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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