TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357990
Played Aug 6Finished
Alberto Mino
Home
1.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Timo Freund
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–8Last 9Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeAlberto Mino to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlberto Mino above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Alberto Mino at 71.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Alberto Mino 1–0 Timo Freund Timo Freund has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Mino
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mino 1861 vs Freund 1187
Mino
Correct
both rated, 674 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mino 80% vs Freund 20%
Mino
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mino 90% vs Freund 11%
Mino
Correct
79pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mino +2 · Freund -3
Freund
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Mino) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mino form (80%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMino 1.05 / Freund 8.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Mino)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357990
Mino1.05
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Freund8.50
11%won 1 of 9 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest11%takes the first set · 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMino1wins
AwayFreund0wins
Mino leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMinoFreundM − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.023.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMinoFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 21 vs 1 / 776.2%14.3%16 / 21 vs 1 / 7Avg sets wonper match2.61.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.029.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MinoMino 1.05/Freund 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89%
Mino · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mino won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino—1111113T. Freund—7880
A. Mino10
LSep 3 · 06:10A. Mino3.403790F. Bourrassaud1.301111113WSep 2 · 12:10A. Shulaybi4.33611111062A. Mino1.20117412113WSep 2 · 06:15D. Shi—6450A. Mino—1111113LAug 26 · 17:25A. Mino3.00114991R. Castro1.3681111113WAug 26 · 10:20P. Dziuba2.6311671192A. Mino1.44611119113WAug 25 · 09:45A. Mino2.201111711113J. Skalda1.5713411972LAug 24 · 14:00A. Mino1.364820Y. Yu3.001111113WAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530WAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181
T. Freund10
LAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann1.1711118113T. Freund4.50551191LAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272WAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311119292T. Freund2.38931111113LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730LAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev1.0314811113T. Freund10.001211671LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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