TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357980
Played Aug 7Finished
Karl Zimmermann
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115811119––
Timo Freund
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:05 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 63.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 1–0 Timo Freund Timo Freund has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1644 vs Freund 1189
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 455 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 80% vs Freund 20%
Zimmermann
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 70% vs Freund 20%
Zimmermann
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +4 · Freund -1
Zimmermann
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 1.17 / Freund 4.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Zimmermann)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357980
Zimmermann1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Freund4.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZimmermann1wins
AwayFreund0wins
Zimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZimmermannFreundZ − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.030.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 38 vs 1 / 757.9%14.3%22 / 38 vs 1 / 7Avg sets wonper match2.01.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.731.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannZimmermann 1.17/Freund 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann—11118113T. Freund—551191
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622
T. Freund10
LAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272WAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311119292T. Freund2.38931111113LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino1.051111113T. Freund8.507880LAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730LAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev1.0314811113T. Freund10.001211671LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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