TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359492
Played Aug 6Finished
Sven Happek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111161131012117
Timo Freund
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTimo Freund to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSven Happek above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Timo Freund at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Happek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Happek 1183 vs Freund 1266
Freund
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 0% vs Freund 20%
Freund
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 10% vs Freund 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -5 · Freund +1
Happek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Happek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Freund form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 1.80 / Freund 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Happek)+2.5pp
Challenger Series TT · #12359492
Happek1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Freund1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 175 vs 1 / 529.7%20%52 / 175 vs 1 / 5Avg sets wonper match1.40.8per matchAvg pointsper match31.929.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HappekHappek 1.80/Freund 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Happek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Happek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
S. Happek10
LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113WJul 27 · 12:30S. Happek1.871111113N. Kizakisz1.838420
T. Freund10
LAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann1.1711118113T. Freund4.50551191WAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311119292T. Freund2.38931111113LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino1.051111113T. Freund8.507880LAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730LAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev1.0314811113T. Freund10.001211671LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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