TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12305188
Played Jul 28Finished
Sven Happek
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121151012112911
Kai Moosmann
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 70.2% is still 70.2%
Graded at full timeKai Moosmann to win
70.2%
70.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Kai Moosmann below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Kai Moosmann at 70.2%
93 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 2–1 Kai Moosmann Kai Moosmann has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Happek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Happek 1199 vs Moosmann 1262
Moosmann
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 20% vs Moosmann 0%
Happek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 20% vs Moosmann 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -1 · Moosmann -5
Moosmann
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Happek) · live re-read · sealed at 30% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moosmann form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 1.20 / Moosmann 4.33
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Happek)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12305188
Happek1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Moosmann4.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHappek2wins
AwayMoosmann1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHappek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek2Moosmann1n = 3Happek took 2 of 3
S2Happek3Moosmann0n = 3Happek took 3 of 3
S3Happek2Moosmann1n = 3Happek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHappekMoosmannH − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.727.0+12.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekMoosmannBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 170 vs 12 / 5030.6%24%52 / 170 vs 12 / 50Avg sets wonper match1.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match32.130.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HappekHappek 1.20/Moosmann 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.3%
Happek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moosmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek—1011101192K. Moosmann—125122113
WSep 22 · 14:55S. Happek—1111113K. Moosmann—6470
WSep 8 · 16:30S. Happek—1113113K. Moosmann—51160
S. Happek10
LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113WJul 27 · 12:30S. Happek1.871111113N. Kizakisz1.838420
K. Moosmann10
LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582LJul 27 · 13:30K. Moosmann8.001311451K. Fadeev1.0615911113LJul 27 · 11:30K. Moosmann7.50631151O. Kosolosky1.0711117113LJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 08:00J. Loffler1.32111211113K. Moosmann3.00514571LDec 19 · 09:30R. Turrini1.021112113K. Moosmann11.0091080LDec 18 · 16:00M. Scharrer1.251111113K. Moosmann3.757570WDec 18 · 14:00K. Moosmann1.131111113J. Grauer5.505580
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